Do High School Ratings = Draft Success?

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Marcus Benjamin @_benjaminmoney

In the last weekend of April, the NFL will hold the college selection party, more commonly known as the NFL draft.  NFL scouts, General Managers and coaches evaluate talent on a number of different factors. Combine results, game film, overall IQ and social life are just some of the factors evaluated.  High school scouts create ratings for high school athletes mainly based on their combine metrics, their performance in seven on seven tournaments and their performance in actual games.  

So how do high school ratings equate to draft stock.  We take a look at the potential 2018 first round draft class and examine how their high school rating measures against their projected draft selection.  The draft selections are an average of NFL mock drafts (in random order) and the high school ratings are pulled from 247 Sports, Rivals and ESPN.  Five star ratings are the highest ratings athletes receive in high school and among the 32 likely to be drafted in this years first round, five stars are not the majority.

Sam Darnold, QB USC

Four star (San Clemente, CA)

The dual threat quarterback out of Southern California opened everyone’s eyes in his freshman year in the Rose Bowl where he passed for a career high 453 yards and scored a rose bowl record 5 passing touchdowns.  He had 10 D-1 offers including Tennessee, Northwestern, Duke and Oregon coming out of high school.

Bradley Chubb, DE NC State

Three Star (Hillgrove, Powder Springs, GA)

Started every game since his sophomore year and totaled 54 tackles for loss and 25 sacks.  East Carolina, Mississippi State and West Virginia were the others close to landing the underrated prospect.

Josh Allen, QB Wyoming

Three Star (Firebaugh HS, Reedly JUCO, CA)

The completely under the radar quarterback received zero scholarship offers out of high school.  He decided to go the JUCO route at Reedly College and received two offers as a result. One from Eastern Michigan and the other from Wyoming.  

Josh Rosen, QB UCLA

Five Star (St. John Bosco, Bellflower, CA)

The 2014 Elite 11 quarterback was recruited by all the major schools in the country.  The number one pro-style quarterback in the nation impressed in his freshman year, but suffered a shoulder injury mid-season in his sophomore year.  Rosen bounced back in his junior year, most notably engineering a 34-point comeback against Texas A&M.

Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma

Three Star (Lake Travis, Austin, TX)

Mayfield is probably the most underrated quarterback coming out of high school to win the Heisman Trophy.  Mayfield only fielded offers from New Mexico, Rice and FAU. He walked on to Texas Tech and then transferred to Oklahoma.  In his last two years at Oklahoma, he was number one in completion percentage and passer rating in all of college football.

Saquon Barkley, RB Penn State

Four Star (Whitehall, PA)

One of the most exciting running backs in college football in recent years.  In three years at Penn State he rushed for close to 4,000 yards and produced over 5,000 yards from scrimmage.  Also returned two kickoffs for touchdowns. Rutgers and Notre Dame were the runners up in the Barkley sweepstakes.

Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB Alabama

Five Star (St. Peters Prep, Jersey City, NJ)

Top five corner in the country coming out of high school with over 30 offers.  Fitzpatrick won two national championships with Bama shutting down his side of the field.  Fitzpatrick Island doesn’t quite have the same ring to it as Revis Island but I guess we can get used to it.

Roquan Smith, LB Georgia

Four Star (Macon County, GA)

Linebacker with arguably the best football instincts in this draft.  Smith was a top 5 linebacker in the country coming out of high school.  He would finish his career with 252 total tackles in 38 games.

Derwin James, S Florida State

Five Star (Haines City, FL)

The number one safety coming out of high school has range, size and speed.  The hard hitting safety from Polk County, FL had a strong freshman season totaling 91 tackles and 4.5 sacks.  He missed the majority of his second season suffering a knee injury. He totaled 84 tackles, 2 interceptions and a sack in his last season as a Seminole.

Marcus Davenport, DE UTSA

Two Star (Stevens, San Antonio, TX)

Is projected by many to be the best edge rusher to come out of this draft.  He simply destroys his opposition and and ran a 4.58 at the combine. He has grown to an absolute monster at 6’7 255 and the only other school seriously interested in him coming out of high school was UNLV.

Tremaine Edwards, LB Virginia Tech

Three Star (Dan River, Ringgold, VA)

Edwards had a huge junior year totaling 108 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss and and 4.5 sacks.  Edwards chose the Hokies over North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest, Maryland, Kentucky and USC.  He would forgo his senior season to enter this years NFL draft.

Calvin Ridley, WR Alabama

Five Star (Monarch, Coconut Creek, FL)

The number one receiver coming out of high school lived up to the hype.  He was the primary option on Alabama’s 2015 and 2017 national championship teams.  He finished his career with 224 receptions 2,781 yards receiving and 19 touchdowns.

Vita Vea, DT Washington

Three star (Milpitas, CA)

At 6’4 347 pounds, Vea pushed 225 on the bench press a whopping 41 times at the NFL combine.  In high school he was offered by Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, Cal and Florida.

Quenton Nelson, G Notre Dame

Four Star (Red Bank Catholic, NJ)

The solid tackle from Jersey was basically offered by the entire nation before settling in South Bend.  

Denzel Ward, CB Ohio State

Four Star (Nordonia, Macedonia, OH)

The 2017 All-American is believed by many to be the top corner in the draft.  Ward was offered by about 10 D-1 programs but none the caliber of a Ohio State.

Harold Landry, LB Boston College

Three Star (Pine Forest, Fayetteville, NC)

Landry played early and often as a true freshman and continued his standout play into his sophomore season.  He lead the nation with 16.5 sacks his junior season and played his senior season despite being eligible for the draft.  He chose BC over Clemson, Auburn, Ohio State, Miami, Florida State and South Carolina just to name a few.

Joshua Jackson, CB Iowa

Three star (Lake Dallas, TX)

The under the radar cornerback was only recruited by two other power 5 schools (Houston and TCU).  He lead college football with 8 interceptions with some of those of the acrobatic variety.

James Washington, WR Oklahoma State

Three star (Stamford, TX)

Washington was as productive as any receiver during his four years as a Cowboy.  He had 226 receptions and scored 40 touchdowns. His only other offers were from TCU and Texas State.

Mike McGlinchey, T Notre Dame

Four star (William Penn Charter, Philadelphia, PA)

The versatile tackle can play on the right or the left side.  Had about 20 offers coming out of high school and was arguably the best tackle for one of the best O-Lines in college football last season.

Josh Sweat, DE Florida State

Five star (Oscar Smith, Chesapeake, VA)

This guy could have gone absolutely anywhere in the country as almost every major program in in the land tried to snag the coveted pass rusher.  In three seasons her registered 14.5 sacks. Underachieved to a degree.

Cortland Sutton, WR SMU

Three star (Brenham, TX)

Recruited as a defensive back before switching over to receiver in year two.  Colorado and Washington State were the other power five schools in contention for Sutton but the receiver chose to stay close to home.  Finished his career with nearly 200 catches and 32 touchdowns.

Leighton Vander Esch, LB Boise State

Unrated (Salmon River, Riggins, ID)

Vander Esch walked on to Boise State and was the Mountain West Defensive Player of the year in 2017.  He is a tackling machine that no one saw coming.

James Daniels, C Iowa

Four star (Warren, OH)

Daniels received about 20 offers before making his college decision.  He chose Iowa over Alabama, Auburn, Miami, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Ohio State.  He played in 37 games for the Hawkeyes.

Maurice Hurst, DT Michigan

Four star (Xaverian Brothers, Westwood, MA)

The 2017 All-American had 32 tackles for loss and was sought after by Big Ten rivals Michigan State, Nebraska and Ohio State.

Will Hernandez, G UTEP

Unrated (Chapparal, Las Vegas, NV)

Completely under the radar player that is a first round talent.  He started 49 games for the Miners.

Taven Bryan, DL Florida

Three star (Natrona County, Casper, WY)

Recruited as an OT and switched to DT.  Received about 10 offers from D-1 schools.  Solid player with plenty of upside.

Mike Hughes, CB UCF

Four star (New Bern, NC)

Originally signed with UNC before running into some legal trouble with a misdemeanor assault charge.  He transferred to a JUCO college in Garden City, Kansas after his freshman year where he fielded numerous offers based on his performance.  He made the most of his one season at UCF where he had 49 tackles and four interceptions for the undefeated Golden Knights in 2017.

Connor Williams, T Texas

Three Star (Coppell, TX)

Before committing to Texas, Connor fielded about 25 offers from schools across the country.  He was an All-American in 2016.

Kolton Miller, T UCLA

Four star (Roseville, CA)

Suffered a foot injury in 2016 but was able to bounce back for his 2017 season.  Close to 20 offers from D-1 schools coming out of high school.

Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville

Three star (Boynton Beach, FL)

Statistically one of the most successful college careers in college football history.  Action Jackson was simply a human highlight film winning the heisman trophy in his sophomore season totalling 50 TDs both passing and rushing.  He is also the only player to total 3,500 yards passing and 1,500 yards rushing in a single season. About 20 D-1 offers coming out of high school leaving many programs scratching their heads wishing they would have offered the special talent.

Da’Ron Payne, DT Alabama

Five star (Shades Valley, Birmingham, AL)

Yet another five star Alabama player lived up to their expectations.  The anchor of the Tide’s defensive line. He played as a true freshman and was vital to their 2017 national championship.

Mason Rudolph, QB Oklahoma State

Four star (Northwestern, Rock Hill, SC)

Rudolph finished 7th in the heisman voting in 2017.  In 32 career games, Rudolf had over 13,000 yards passing and 92 total touchdowns.  LSU and Virginia Tech were closest to land Rudolf as Virginia, Ole Miss and Louisville also offered.

5 stars = 6

4 stars = 11

3 stars = 12

2 stars = 1

Unrated = 2

Ratings do give programs an idea of the level of talent these schools are getting, but developing that talent mean so so much more.